Microsoft Copilot and the future of human-centered AI

A long time ago… oh, this will hurt a bit, I remember Jim Barksdale on a Tech CEO panel pointing out that Netscape was present on more than 70% of the desktops (okay kids, look up Netscape on Wikipedia). When Bill Gates was asked how he felt about that his reply was an appropriately snarky “what percentage do you think we’re on?” There’s a lot to be said for owning the desktop and Microsoft has been the undisputed champion of the desktop since PCs were beige. Netscape, by the way, is dead.

Now, unfortunately, Microsoft has not always capitalized on that position. Antitrust lawsuits and various missteps over the years have kept Microsoft from a Tyrell Corporation (movie reference, look it up folks) level of dominance but that may be changing. Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s CEO, is no Steve Balmer and that’s a very good thing. Under Nadella, Microsoft has focused on quietly delivering value for customers. Microsoft Dynamics CRM is solidly in our Value Matrix leader quadrant while we see other Microsoft business solutions delivering steady and increasing value. Oh, the early days might have been rough, but not now. Microsoft has quietly become a solid business solution for many organizations.

That brings us to AI and Microsoft Copilot (no relationship to Clippy).

OpenAI’s ChatGPT is an interesting tool with a lot of visibility right now, but artificial intelligence will really shine when it’s an integral part of daily work. Generating glowing haikus about your wonderful company CEO (well, that’s what my staff told me they were doing) won’t deliver value. Suggesting a rephrased paragraph while within Word or Outlook is massively beneficial while offering an analysis of data in an Excel spreadsheet is a fantastic tool. A copilot is exactly what Copilot aims to be.

Sam Hamway analyzed Copilot and published a recent research note (x63 – Demystifying the value of Microsoft’s GPT-powered Copilot) estimating a 10 to 40% savings in time for typical users. That’s likely a good initial estimate but the potential is even higher. How valuable is Google when Microsoft can integrate search and AI into daily desktop life? When most people live in Microsoft Office, that becomes the starting point and Copilot becomes the tool that aggregates information. Hear that, Meta? I’m predicting good things on the horizon for Microsoft.

Good work Mr. Nadella.