Our 2015 Top Ten Predictions

Our top 10 predictions went out last week. This year’s report was bit delayed from our normal November timeframe but the analyst team was under a bit of pressure this past Fall. We’ve had a great track record since the first top 10 was published in 2004 and now 11 years later I’m proud of the work and insight of Rebecca Wettemann and her team. Read them and judge for yourself.

We’ve predicted the end of the timeclock, the rise of 3D printing, the fall of Ballmer, and the restructuring of SAP. We pointed out the struggles of HP and the change in the nature of corporate IT. It’s no surprise we were early to embrace the cloud, given the obvious ROI from cloud-based solutions. We highlighted the rise of analytics, the weaknesses of “Big Data” (It’s only important to the extent you can boil it down to something useful), and saw the coming move to analytics within core application areas instead of standalone solutions. You probably know how we feel about Google glass.

Developing our top 10 starts by bringing the analyst team together and debating the future of technology. We’re looking at 2 to 3 years out, so no “flying car” predictions from us. With a wall filled with ideas we analyze each to assess the underlying value. Our view of the world is that technology that delivers value survives while technology that does not will wither (no, I still don’t get Apple). Interesting ideas such as 3D TVs and RFID without a clear value statement are more critically assessed. From there we cut the list to the 10 predictions we think are most interesting. It’s a great debate and interesting to watch the analyst team lobby for their favorites. Some years our top 10 actually had 11 predictions but for 2015, there was a clear consensus for 10.